It has been a long time since I last posted. So many things going on never any time to sit down and catch up all of my postings.
Basically just want to put down a few thoughts about what is happening in the markets and where I think we will see everything headed over the next 6-12 months.
At this time I think a Greece default on auserity measures is a given. Another bailout will be needed, and if not provided then I think we will see Greece exit the Euro. Everyone is expecting a Greece Exit (currently coined as a "Grexit") to come this summer. I think to a certain extent they are right, but I also think that the current government officials are going to continue to try and "save" the Euro as is...a failed experiment after just over one decade is not what they want to see.
I think Spain is a ticking time bomb that will cause even more concern overall then Greece ever caused. Will Spain be forced from the Euro? Hmmm. I think Germans (the people not the Government) would really like to just exit the Euro themselves, go back to the German Mark and let the other countries fend for themselves.
I beleive we will see the Euro down to $1.25-$1.26 (it touched $1.2698 a couple of days ago, today it is touching $1.2685) We may see a low around $1.22-1.23 before a turn up later this summer. Overall I personally expect the US $ to strengthen for the next several months which will force Gold and Silver down. There will be a recovery struggle worldwide and OIL should bottom out around $80-$85 a barrel. Next year things will get back to an even keel and if Gold and Silver have any life left, there should be a strong rally late this year going into 2013. I would not be surprised to see a rally in metals start in late July/August time period, but there will be a quick pull back before continuing as we go into 2013.
What surprises me most is that the Volatility Index has been so "calm"/low. Several times going below 20. I would expect with all of the uncertainty in the world that the Volatitiy Index should be in the 30-45 range.
Anyway, just a quick note. Will try to get back to posting more often.
Mother