Oh So long


It has been a long time since I last posted.  So many things going on never any time to sit down and catch up all of my postings.

Basically just want to put down a few thoughts about what is happening in the markets and where I think we will see everything headed over the next 6-12 months.

At this time I think a Greece default on auserity measures is a given.  Another bailout will be needed, and if not provided then I think we will see Greece exit the Euro.  Everyone is expecting a Greece Exit (currently coined as a "Grexit") to come this summer.  I think to a certain extent they are right, but I also think that the current government officials are going to continue to try and "save" the Euro as is...a failed experiment after just over one decade is not what they want to see.

I think Spain is a ticking time bomb that will cause even more concern overall then Greece ever caused.  Will Spain be forced from the Euro?  Hmmm. I think Germans (the people not the Government) would really like to just exit the Euro themselves, go back to the German Mark and let the other countries fend for themselves.

I beleive we will see the Euro down to $1.25-$1.26 (it touched $1.2698 a couple of days ago, today it is touching $1.2685)  We may see a low around $1.22-1.23 before a turn up later this summer.  Overall I personally expect the US $ to strengthen for the next several months which will force Gold and Silver down.  There will be a recovery struggle worldwide and OIL should bottom out around $80-$85 a barrel.  Next year things will get back to an even keel and if Gold and Silver have any life left, there should be a strong rally late this year going into 2013.  I would not be surprised to see a rally in metals start in late July/August time period, but there will be a quick pull back before continuing as we go into 2013.

What surprises me most is that the Volatility Index has been so "calm"/low.  Several times going below 20.  I would expect with all of the uncertainty in the world that the Volatitiy Index should be in the 30-45 range.

Anyway, just a quick note.  Will try to get back to posting more often.


11-02-2011 Market Musings


Well what about them Greeks?

We want to be part of teh Eurozone Union but we don't want to have any austerity measures implemented.  "Oh can I have my Cake and Pie, Oh and add two scoops of Ice Cream with a cup of Coffee extra cream and jigger of Kahlua?"  Man talk about wanting everything.

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September 14, 2011 GOLD vs GLD


In the past I posted about Trading, Investing and Gambling.  Today, I want to kind of delve a little more into this topic.

Well Gold is setting up a nice base here in the $1800 range.  Going up to $1900, down to $1800, up to $1890, down to $1800, and the yo-yo of this precious metals keeps going.

I was recently asked about investing in GLD - the Gold ETF (along with SLV the Silver ETF).  My thoughts are as follows:

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August 8, 2011 The Wham, Bam, Thank you Mam' Market


If you follow any of my postings in the past you know that I have been very bullish on metals for sometime.  I first started buying Gold and Silver back in 2001 when Gold was Trading at $268 and ounce and Silver was $3.75-4.25 an ounce.  Since then I have been watching the ups and downs and given you my thoughts on where I thought the market would head based on Technical Analysis and Global Economic information.

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July 13, 2011 Update


It has been a while since I last posted anything thanks to a very busy summer.  Therefore, this post will highlight several updates all at once.

The Silver Lining in the Gold (and other precious metals market)
Gold is making a new all-time highs at 1580's with Silver trading around $38  the Gold/Silver ratio is currently between 41-42 up from 32 when Silver was hitting recent highs at $49 before crashing back to $33-34.  Gold had been setting up a good base between $1480 and $1550 before this breakout to the upside.  I would look for topping action around the Psychological barrier of $1600 but would not be surprised if we see a run up just above $1600 (say to $1610-$1620) before a fall back before we start the annual Fall run in the metals market.

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More Musings

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