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April 11, 2011 - Excerpt from an update on an experimental portfolio

10-01-2011

First, just a quick note about Gold and Silver.  I'm not sure if I posted my thoughts on Silver making it to $42 before we see a correction or not. (edit: went back and looked at my old post and see that I had thought Silver @ $42 in 12-24 weeks was possible posted on March 24, guess I should have said 12-24 days instead of weeks, but I was not expecting such a powerful burst in prices).  Basically for the past month or so I have been in discussions with my father-in-law and several friends about Gold and Silver prices and told them back in February that I would expect to see Gold make a run to $1500 if it could close above $1450.  Well Gold closed above $1450 and ran to $1475 before hitting a resistance level.  Currently Gold is still trading between $1460 and $1475.  Meanwhile I expected Silver to move to $42 before we see any form of a pull-back.  Silver finally made a move and when it did it has basically exploded once again going from $38 to $41 in just a couple of days and currently trading just above $41 @ $41.30.  I would expect Silver to begin some topping out action and we might see it trade as high as $45 based on current charts.  However, I would expect a pullback to start at any point in time now.  I am not thinking a massive pullback (say a 40%-50% move which would be normal in any Bull market and would place Silver back down at $24-$25, but would not be surprised to see such a move), no instead I think we will see another 3-5% retraction and a continuation of a good base development. Will post at some time thoughts about the metals market and the ending of QE 2.

Mother

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